tailieunhanh - Learning Financial Accounting Theory_2

Tham khảo tài liệu 'learning financial accounting theory_2', tài chính - ngân hàng, kế toán - kiểm toán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | i i Ị __Ị Efficient Securities Markets 95 of these predictions. made 619 over the in terms of forecast- cago Daily News and tions of each of its sports staff as to who would win that weekend s college football games. Table taken from Beaver summarizes the outcomes Note the following points from Table . First there were a number of different forecasters 15-16 and a large number of forecasts were three years . Second no one individual forecaster dominated ing ability. The best forecasters in 1966 were well down the list in subsequent years and vice versa. Third note the consistent performance of the consensus forecast. The consensus forecast was also published weekly by the Chii for each game consisted of the team favoured to win by the majority of those forecasting. It is clear that the consensus forecast has a quality that transcends the forecasting ability of the individual forecasters from which the consensus is derived. Ệ Ệ FORECASTING OUTCOMES OF FOOTBALL GAMES 1966 1967 1968 Total forecasters including consensus 15 15 16 Total forecasts made per forecaster 180 220 219 Rank of consensus 1 tie 2 2 Median rank of forecasters 8 8 Rank of best forecasters J. Carmichael 1966 1 tie 8 16 D. Nightingale 1966 1 tie 11 5 A. Biondo 1967 7 1 6 H. Duck 1968 8 10 1 When all three years are combined the consensus outperforms every ne of the forecasters that is ranks first . SOURCE William H. Beaver Financial Reporting An Accounting Revi liution 1981 p- 162 Table 6-1. Reprinted by permission of Prentice-Hall Inc. Upper s ỉdđle River New Jersey. Data are from Here s How Our Staff Picks Em Chicago Daii y News November 25 1966 p. 43 November 24 1967 p. 38 and November 29 1968 J. 43 . Reprinted with special permission from the Chicago Sun-Times 1999. To translate the example into a securities market context we can think of the forecasters as investors in a security and the forecasts as their various buy sell decisions. The consensus forecast is analogous to the .

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