tailieunhanh - The Treatment of Uncertainty in EPA’s Analysis of Air Pollution Rules: A Status Report

Quantitative methods - including performance testing, indoor air pollution monitoring and questionnaires - can track changes in "quantifiables" and are a means of objectively comparing one intervention against another. Qualitative methods, on the other hand, help reveal the perspectives of individuals or communities and provide important contextual data to explain the results of quantitative analyses. They include in-depth, open-ended interviews, direct observations of behaviours and participatory methods. Sample size, . the number of individuals, homes or stoves to monitor, is a critical aspect in evaluation planning. If the sample size is too large, time and financial resources are wasted on superfluous data collection. If the sample size is too small, it is impossible. | DISCUSSION PAPER February 2010 RFF DP 10-04 The Treatment of Uncertainty in EPA s Analysis of Air Pollution Rules A Status Re-port Arthur G. Fraas 1616 P St. NW Washington DC 20036 202-328-5000 RESOU RCES FOR THE FUTURE The Treatment of Uncertainty in EPA s Analysis of Air Pollution Rules A Status Report Arthur G. Fraas Abstract An understanding of the uncertainty in benefit and cost estimates is a critical part of a benefitcost analysis. Without a quantitative treatment of uncertainty it is difficult to know how much confidence to place in these estimates. In 2002 an NRC report recommended that EPA move toward conducting probabilistic multiple-source uncertainty analyses in its RIAs with the specification of probability distributions for major sources of uncertainty in the benefit estimates. In 2006 reports by GAO and RFF found that EPA had begun to address the NRC recommendations but that much remained to be done to meet the NRC concerns. This paper provides a further review of EPA s progress in developing a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in its health benefits analyses for the RIAs for four recent NAAQS rulemakings. In conclusion EPA s recent RIAs present the results of its uncertainty analyses in piecemeal fashion rather than providing an overall comprehensive statement of the uncertainty in its estimates. In addition its recent RIAs continue to focus on the concentration-response relationship and largely fail to address the uncertainty associated with the other key elements of the benefits analysis. Key Words benefit-cost analysis uncertainty analysis JEL Classification Numbers B41 D61 D80 I18 Q50 2010 Resources for the Future. All rights reserved. No portion of this paper may be reproduced without permission of the authors. Discussion papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes of information and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review. Contents EPA s .