tailieunhanh - WORKING PAPER NO. 192 IS THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (AND THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL RESERVE) PREDICTABLE?

In the previous sub-section we have described the evolution of yields and interest rate spreads in 2002 using weekly data. If the information revealed by policy events is processed efficiently in capital markets, it may nevertheless be necessary to look at higher frequencies to detect any impact of fiscal policy events. In this section we therefore focus more carefully on specific events using daily data. As an illustration, we select two periods for a closer look. Event 1 is the episode leading to the ECOFIN decision to not issue an early warning against Portugal and Germany on 12 February, and event 2 is the remark. | EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES WORKING PAPER NO. 192 IS THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE UNITED STATES Federal RESERVE PREDICTABLE BY GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS AND JORGE SICILIA November 2002 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES WORKING PAPER NO. 192 IS THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE UNITED STATES Federal RESERVE PREDICTABLE BY GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS1 AND JORGE SICILIA2 November 2002 The authors would like to thank G. de Bondt G. Camba-Méndez F. Drudi . Escrivá . Klockers an anonymous referee and participants at an internal seminar for specific comments to S. Eusepi for assistance and useful discussions on an earlier version of the paper and to R. Pilegaard for assistance in the data collection. Editorial suggestions from C. Burns are gratefully remaining errors are our own views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the European Central Bank or of the Eurosystem. 1 Banco de Espana. 2 European central Bank. European Central Bank 2001 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-603II Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone Internet 49 69 1344 0 http Fax 49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. ISSN .

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