tailieunhanh - Climate Change and Variability Part 4

Tham khảo tài liệu 'climate change and variability part 4', kỹ thuật - công nghệ, cơ khí - chế tạo máy phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | 78 Climate Change and Variability 5 Possible impacts of global warming on typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan Chia Chou Research Center for Environmental Changes Academia Sinica Taipei Taiwan Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan Jien-Yi Tu Department of Atmospheric Sciences Chinese Culture University Taipei Taiwan Pao-Shin Chu Department of Meteorology SOEST University of Hawaiiat Manoa Honolulu Hawaii 1. Introduction Typhoons are one of the most extreme natural events over the western North Pacific-East Asian WNP-EA sector . Typhoons often affect the spatial distribution of regional precipitation in summer since they are a major source of rainfall over this region. For example in 2004 10 typhoons occurred in Japan and brought more than usual precipitation causing widespread damage whereas drought occurred in the Philippines and southern China Kim et al. 2005 Levinson et al. 2005 Wu et al. 2005 . Typhoon-related climate studies often focus on the variation of typhoon intensity frequency and track in multitemporal scales ranging from intraseasonal to interdecadal Chan 1985 2000 Chia and Ropelewski 2002 Chu 2004 Ho et al. 2006 Matsuura et al. 2003 Wang and Chan 2002 . In recent years the influence of global warming on the intensity of tropical cyclones has received much attention. Emanuel 2005 Hoyos et al. 2006 and Webster et al. 2005 found increasing trends in the western Pacific and Atlantic based on some available besttrack datasets. Chan and Liu 2004 and Klotzbach 2006 found small or no trends using alternate analysis techniques. Other studies . Landsea et al. 2006 have shown opposite trends to those found by Emanuel in the west Pacific by examining other best-track datasets. Besides observations model simulations also show that intense tropical cyclones will be more frequent in the future warmer climate while the total number of tropical cyclones tends to decrease Bender et al. 2010 Emanuel et al. 2008 Zhao et al.

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