tailieunhanh - Global Warming Part 6

Tham khảo tài liệu 'global warming part 6', kỹ thuật - công nghệ, cơ khí - chế tạo máy phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Potential Changes in Hydrologic Hazards under Global Climate Change 85 were calculated and compared to observed data. Regrettably model bias is relatively large and no model can agree well with observation. Heavy precipitation was defined as that in a partial duration series PDS 39 composed of 40 largest 2-day precipitations for 20 years. In other words the PDS was the time series exceeding the threshold which was set to the 40th largest 2-day precipitation. The frequency distribution for precipitation in the PDS is Model IPCC ID Resolution long. X lat. degree Precipitation 1981-2000 Quantile 1981-2000 Annual Average mm year 2-day Maximum m m 2-d ay 2-day 40th mm 2- day 100-year mm 2-day 200-year mm 2-day Observed Tokyo 1479 294 86 376 415 Model emsemble 1733 151 66 170 184 cccma_cgcm3_1 T47 1834 170 71 216 236 cnrm_cm3 CNRM-CM3 2227 214 86 266 290 csiro_mk3_0 1600 124 61 139 149 gfdl_cm2_0 1671 175 66 201 219 giss_aom GISS-AOM 1795 68 49 89 94 giss_model_e_r GISS-ER 1065 66 41 72 76 iap_fgoals1_0_g 2077 144 77 162 173 ipsl_cm4 IPSL-CM4 2106 363 104 344 376 miroc3_2_hires hires 1823 143 70 147 157 miroc3_2_medres medres 1863 108 63 128 136 miub_echo_g ECHO-G 1138 110 46 130 141 ncar_pcm1 PCM 1601 123 57 145 157 Table 1. GCMs with resolutions and simulated precipitation in present climate. 86 Global Warming set as dimensionless using maximum xmax and threshold precipitation x0 in each model Figure 6 . The ensemble average of dimensionless precipitation frequency in 2000 agrees with that observed and its probability density function is approximated by an exponential distribution. We also clarified that the frequency distribution does not change in 2050 2100 2200 or 2300. s I 20c3m ----Observed Tokyo ----Calculated ensemble average 2 A1B B1 2050 2100 2200 2300 .

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