tailieunhanh - ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK : Marking time until downside risks to global outlook fade

LRAPs are also administered by state bar foundations, public interest legal employers, and federal and state governments to assist law graduates in pursuing and remaining in public interest jobs. The federal government offers some options to assist graduates seeking legal careers in public service, including the new income-based repayment (IBR) option for federal loan repayment and the Federal Loan Forgiveness Program, both beginning in 2009. The IBR will allow any federal education loan borrower the opportunity to make low monthly payments on their federal loans (including, but not limited to, those employed in public service positions), provided that income qualifications are met. The Federal Loan Forgiveness Program allows borrowers who work in government. | RBC ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Real GDP Growth Source International Monetary Fund RBC Economics Research Craig Wright Chief Economist 416-974-7457 Dawn Desjardins Assistant Chief Economist 416-974-6919 Paul Ferley Assistant Chief Economist 416-974-7231 Nathan Janzen Economist 416-974-0579 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK December 2012 Marking time until downside risks to global outlook fade The latest International Monetary Fund IMF global growth outlook showed another cut to the advanced and emerging economies forecasts. In 2012 world GDP is forecasted to increase by or percentage points less than what was expected in July. 2013 s growth forecast was trimmed by percentage points to to stand a full percentage point lower than the forecasted increase presented a year earlier. Notably the trajectory for world growth is upward even if the pace is expected to remain slower than its historical average. Weighing against a faster acceleration is the sharp reduction in government spending and tax increases in many of the advanced countries. The effect of this fiscal consolidation will in part be mitigated by central banks maintaining very low policy rates. While in most jurisdictions this will be sufficient to ensure that longer-term rates stay historically low elevated financing costs in some of the highly indebted European countries mean that the European Central Bank ECB will have to engage additional policies to align these costs with the official policy rate. In the immediate term there remains a significant downside risk to the US economy coming from the so called fiscal cliff. We see the probability that the policies that are currently on the books will be enacted as being significantly below 50 instead we expect a much smaller degree of fiscal restraint in 2013 than a full-blown fiscal cliff would entail. The risk of a deeper and longer recession in Europe is also