tailieunhanh - The Optimality of the Common Fisheries Policy: the Northern Stock of Hake†

The link between Önancial asset prices and macro variables has become a popular Öeld of the economic research over the past decades. Many studies, mostly applied on the United States, have shown that the term spread, measured as the di§erence between yields on longer maturity bonds and money market interest rates, has predicted macro variables more accurately compared with other Önancial asset classes. Results concerning the ability of stock prices, usually in the form of broad-based indices, in predicting such variables have been mixed. But, given that some stock market sectors can be assumed to be more closely linked to the business cycle than others, it should be. | The Optimality of the Common Fisheries Policy the Northern Stock of Hake7 José-María Da-Rocha1 María-José Gutiérrez2 1 Departamento de Economía. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and RGEA-Universidade de Vigo. C Madrid 126 28903 Getafe Madrid. e-mail jrocha@ 2 DFAE II - University of the Basque Country. Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83 48015 Bilbao. e-mail jepguhum@ April 2004 Abstract We evaluate the management of the Northern Stock of Hake during 1986-2001. A stochastic bioeconomic model is calibrated to match the main features of this fishing ground. We show how catches biomass stock and profits would have been if the optimal Common Fisheries Policy CFP consistent with the target biomass implied by the Fischler s Recovery Plan had been implemented. The main finding are i an optimal CFP would have generated profits of more than 667 millions euros ii if side-payments are allowed implemented by ITQ s for example these profits increase 26 . JEL Classification Q22 Q28. Key words Common Fisheries Policy Fishing Regulation Fischler Recovery Plan. Short running title The Optimality of the CFP. t We thank two anonymous referees whose comments and suggestions have substantially improved the paper and to Javier Pereiro from Instituto Oceanográfico de Vigo for making available part of data available to us. Financial support from the Instituto de Estudios Económicos de Galicia Pedro Barrie de la Maza FEDER Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología SEC2002-4318-C02-01 José María Da-Rocha CICYT 1393-12254 2000 and SEC2003-02510 ECO María José Gutiérrez Fundación BBVA 1 BBVA 2002 María José Gutiérrez and from Universidad del País Vasco 9 2001 María José Gutiérrez is gratefully acknowledged. 1 Introduction The total allowable catch TAC is the key element in the management of fishing exploitation rates considered by the Common Fisheries Policy CFP . At the end of each year on the basis of scientific advice given mainly by the ICES .