tailieunhanh - AN INTERNATIONAL ANALYSIS OF EARNINGS, STOCK PRICES AND BOND YIELDS

This study also departs from earlier research on this topic in that it focuses on survey- based expectations. Investor cash flow projections are largely inferred from surveys of equity analysts’ earnings forecasts, while inflation expectations are drawn from surveys of professional forecasters. While having its own disadvantages, particularly a relatively short history, the use of survey expectations are a direct measure of market expectations, eliminating the need to make strong identifying assumptions on how expectations are formed. Most studies aimed at explaining correlation between expected inflation and stock returns--and, for that matter, much of the broader research on the determinants of aggregate returns--gauge expectations. | EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 515 I AUGUST 2005 AN INTERNATIONAL ANALYSIS OF EARNINGS STOCK PRICES AND BOND YIELDS by Alain Durré and Pierre Giot EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 515 I AUGUST 2005 AN INTERNATIONAL ANALYSIS OF EARNINGS STOCK PRICES AND BOND YIELDS1 by Alain Durré2 and Pierre Giot3 In 2005 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the 50 banknote. This paper can be downloaded without charge from http or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http abstract_id 775426. I We would like to thank discussants at the National Bank of Belgium and the European Central Bank for insightful opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the European Central Bank or other usual disclaimer applies. 2 European Central Bank IESEG-Catholic University of Lille France and member of Labores . 362 . Phone 49 0 6913445972 E-mail 3 Professor of finance at the Department of Business Administration CEREFIM University of Namur Rempart de la Vierge 8 5000 Namur Belgium and CORE at Université catholique de Louvain. Phone 32 0 8I 724887 E-mail Send all correspondence to . European Central Bank 2005 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone 49 69 1344 0 Internet http Fax 49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproductionfor educational and noncommercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The statement of purpose for the ECB Working Paper Series is available from the ECB website http . ISSN 1561-0810 print ISSN 1725-2806 online

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