tailieunhanh - THE PITCH RATHER THAN THE PIT INVESTOR INATTENTION DURING FIFA WORLD CUP MATCHES

In addition to emphasizing long-horizon expected returns, the approach taken here differs from previous treatments in that it uses ex ante estimates of expected returns, rather than ex post actual returns. Expected returns are estimated by incorporating corporate cash flow projections into an expanded version of the Campbell and Shiller (1988, 1989) dividend-price ratio model, in which the log of the price-earnings ratio is a linear function of required future returns, expected earnings growth rates, and expected dividend payout rates. Given one adequately controls for expected earnings growth and payout rates–and assuming the model is true–then any residual relationship between the price-earnings ratio and expected. | EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK In 2012 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 50 banknote. EUROSYSTEM WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1424 I FEBRUARY 2012 THE PITCH RATHER THAN THE PIT INVESTOR INATTENTION DURING FIFA WORLD CUP MATCHES by Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen NOTE This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank ECB . The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Acknowledgements This paper presents the authors personal opinions and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank de Neder-landsche Bank or the Eurosystem. The first author thanks de Nederlandsche Bank for its hospitality during his stay as visiting scholar. We thank Thomas Kostka for help in retrieving the data and Yener Altunbas Boppo Janssen Luis Marques Marco Massarenti and seminar participants at various venues for useful comments and discussions. Michael Ehrmann Corresponding author at European Central Bank Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany e-mail David-Jan Jansen at De Nederlandsche Bank Westeinde 1 PO Box 98 1000 AB Amsterdam the Netherlands e-mail European Central Bank 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone 49 69 1344 0 Internet http Fax 49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. ISSN 1725-2806 online Any reproduction publication and reprint in the form of a different publication whether printed or produced electronically in whole or in part is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors. This paper can be downloaded without charge from http or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http abstract_id 2004234. Information on all of the papers published in the ECB Working Paper Series can be found on the ECB s .

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