tailieunhanh - The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?

Peaks in the financial cycle are closely associated with systemic banking crises (henceforth “financial crises” for short). In the sample of seven industrialised countries noted above, all the financial crises with domestic origin (ie, those that do not stem from losses on cross- border exposures) occur at, or close to, the peak of the financial cycle. And the financial crises that occur away from peaks in domestic financial cycles reflect losses on exposures to foreign such cycles. Typical examples are the banking strains in Germany and Switzerland recently. Conversely, most financial cycle peaks coincide with. | BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS BIS Working Papers No 395 The financial cycle and macroeconomics What have we learnt by Claudio Borio Monetary and Economic Department December 2012 JEL classification E30 E44 E50 G10 G20 G28 H30 H50 Keywords financial cycle business cycle medium term financial crises monetary economy balance sheet recessions balance sheet repair. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements and from time to time by other economists and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website . Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 print ISSN 1682-7678 online The financial cycle and macroeconomics What have we learnt Claudio Borio Abstract It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. In the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the financial cycle. This calls for a rethink of modelling strategies and for significant adjustments to macroeconomic policies. This essay highlights the stylised empirical features of the financial cycle conjectures as to what it may take to model it satisfactorily and considers its policy implications. In the discussion of policy the essay pays special attention to the bust phase which is less well explored and raises much more controversial issues. JEL Classification E30 E44 E50 G10 G20 G28 H30 H50 Keywords financial cycle business cycle medium term financial crises monetary economy balance sheet recessions balance sheet repair. .

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