tailieunhanh - Trade-Off Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse.

Our approach has some similarities to the epidemiological literature on the spread of disease in networks (see, for example, Anderson and May (1991), Newman (2002), Jackson and Rogers (2007), or the overview by Meyers (2007)). But there are two key differences. First, in epidemiological models, the susceptibility of an individual to contagion from a particular infected `neighbour' does not depend on the health of their other neighbours. By contrast, in our set-up, contagion to a particular institution following a default is more likely to occur if another of its counterparties has also defaulted. Second, in most epidemiological models, higher connectivity simply creates more channels of contact through. | Trade-Off Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion a study in global systemic collapse. David Korowicz 30th June revised 2012 Metis Risk Consulting Feasta Metis Risk Consulting Understanding communicating and managing large-scale systemic risk With support from The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability Designing systems for a changing world 1 Overview This study considers the relationship between a global systemic banking monetary and solvency crisis and its implications for the real-time flow of goods and services in the globalised economy. It outlines how contagion in the financial system could set off semi-autonomous contagion in supplychains globally even where buyers and sellers are linked by solvency sound money and bank intermediation. The cross-contagion between the financial system and trade production networks is mutually reinforcing. It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy account must be taken of how growing complexity interconnectedness interdependence and the speed of processes the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse. Collapse in this sense means the irreversible loss of socio-economic complexity which fundamentally transforms the nature of the economy. These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling. As the globalised economy has become more complex and ever faster for example Just-in-Time logistics the ability of the real economy to pick up and globally transmit supply-chain failure and then contagion has become greater and potentially more devastating in its impacts. In a more complex and interdependent economy fewer failures are required to transmit cascading failure through socio-economic systems. In addition we have normalised massive increases in .

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