tailieunhanh - Why Are there So Many Banking Crises? The Politics and Policy of Bank Regulation phần 3

mà là nhiều hơn so với sự mất tích lũy của tất cả các ngân hàng Mỹ trong cuộc Đại khủng hoảng, ngay cả sau khi điều chỉnh cho lạm phát. Trung bình chi phí tài chính của mỗi người trong các cuộc khủng hoảng ngân hàng gần đây là thứ tự của 12% GDP của cả nước nhưng vượt quá | COORDINATION FAILURES AND THE LLR 53 information game that pins down a unique equilibrium as in Carlsson and Van Damme 1993 or Postlewaite and Vives 1987 . The analysis could be easily extended to allow for fund managers to have access to a public signal v R n where n N 0 1 fip is independent of R and from the error terms Ei of the private signals. The only impact of the public signal is to replace the unconditional moments R and 1 a of R by its conditional moments taking into account the public signal v. A disclosure of a signal of high enough precision will imply the existence of multiple equilibria much in the same manner as a sufficiently precise prior. The public signal could be provided by the central bank. Indeed the central bank typically has information about banks that the market does not have and conversely market participants also have information that is unknown to the central bank .22 The model allows for the information structures of the central bank and investors to be nonnested. Our discussion then has a bearing on the slippery issue of the optimal degree of transparency of central bank announcements. Indeed Alan Greenspan has become famous for his oblique way of saying things fostering an industry of Greenspanology or interpretation of his statements. Our model may rationalize oblique statements by central bankers that seem to add noise to a basic message. Precisely because the central bank may be in a unique position to provide information that becomes common knowledge it has the capacity to destabilize expectations in the market which in our context means to move the interbank market to a regime of multiple equilibria . By fudging the disclosure of information the central bank makes sure that somewhat different interpretations of the release will be made preventing Indeed in the initial game without a public signal we may well be in the uniqueness region but adding a precise enough public signal will mean we have three .

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