tailieunhanh - WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Rebalancing Growth phần 7

đối với một số nền kinh tế lớn. Nền kinh tế mới nổi như Chile cũng giới thiệu chương trình làm việc thời gian ngắn. Nhận thức được tầm quan trọng của nó, Tổ chức Lao động quốc tế trích dẫn chia sẻ công việc như một công cụ quản lý cụ thể cuộc khủng hoảng 2009 Hiệp ước Việc làm Toàn cầu của nó. | WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REBALANCING GROWTH Figure . Global Imbalances1 Current account balance in percent of world GDP Global imbalances narrowed sharply in 2009 owing to both cyclical and more lasting developments. Imbalances are projected to widen once again as the global recovery takes hold. Source IMF staff calculations. 1 CHN EMA China Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Province of China Thailand DEU JPN Germany and Japan OIL Oil exporters US United States OCADE other current-account-deficit economies ROW rest of the world. consumption and investment offset the fall in net exports. At the same time supply rebalanced with resources shifting from the tradables to the nontradables sector. In some cases real appreciation was followed by a shift in export composition toward higher-value-added goods that is by a move up the export quality Third total employment rose slightly during reversals as gains in nontradables employment more than offset employment losses in the tradables sector. Finally there were some policy mistakes made during the rebalancing phase. Specifically in some cases macroeconomic policy stimulus undertaken to offset the contractionary impact of appreciation was excessive resulting in overheating and asset price booms. The chapter is structured as follows. The first section defines and identifies policy-induced surplus reversals based on data covering a broad range of economies over the past 50 years. The second section presents a statistical analysis of these episodes with emphasis on the behavior of key variables including savings investment and growth. In particular this section uses regression analysis to identify the domestic and external factors that account for the wide variety of growth outcomes associated with surplus reversals. Given the difficulty of quantifying some important policy variables such as structural reforms and discretionary fiscal and monetary policy responses the third section .