tailieunhanh - Why the Bank Rate should increase now

Since May we have seen a succession of relatively weak output indicators. As I noted earlier, the second release of the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2011 confirmed the picture of a stagnant economy. Less importantly, from my perspective, there has been a range of relatively weak qualitative business surveys. I say less importantly because these measures typically are not individually very informative except during periods of sharply falling output. Recent hard data, however, include the figures of industrial production in April. The decline that these showed was less than might have been expected given that there was. | IS BANK OF ENGLAND Speech Why the Bank Rate should increase now Speech given by Martin Weale External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England At the Finance Directors Strategy Meeting London 13 June 2011 I would like to thank Matthew Corder Daniel Eckloff and Bob Gilhooly for research assistance and I am also grateful for helpful comments from other colleagues. The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England or other members of the Monetary Policy Committee. All speeches are available online at publications speeches Background The last few months have seen continuing volatility in Britain s economic data. After a fall of in the fourth quarter of last year GDP has risen by the same amount in the first quarter of this year. So over the two quarters taken together there has been no economic growth - an outcome weaker than many people including me had expected two or three months ago but nevertheless one which has not fulfilled fears of a new contraction. The inflation rate moved sharply higher in January under the influence of the increase in VAT. And it has moved higher since reaching per cent in April but possibly boosted by the date of Easter. As you know I first voted for a rise in Bank Rate at the January meeting and today I would like to consider the continuing case for an early increase in Bank Rate. The economy has suffered from an adverse demand shock - the sharp contraction of 2008-2009 - and from two types of adverse supply shock. First of all the trend path for productivity is almost certainly lower than most people had expected before the economic crisis although trend growth is probably little changed . Not only did productivity levels fall during the crisis but there has been no real sign of the sort of recovery which might have been expected if the decline in productivity had simply been a temporary consequence of the disruption associated with the credit crunch.

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