tailieunhanh - The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy

In this study, we aim at testing whether press conferences held after the meeting of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy council steer market interest rates in the Euro zone. To meet this goal, we quantify the statements according to whether they are neutral, hawkish or show, using a principal components analysis, that market interest rates react significantly to the bias in statements, and more particularly to changes in statements from one meeting to the next. Moreover, we find that the short end of the yield curve reacts more sharply to statements than the long segment: the effect of statements peaks on interest rates with a maturity of. | The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates Implications for Monetary Policy Claude Lavoie and Stephen Murchison Research Department The lower bound on nominal interest rates is typically close to zero since households can earn a zero rate of return by holding bank notes. The average inflation rate the size of the shocks hitting an economy the formation of inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy itself all influence the risk of hitting the zero bound. The balance of evidence suggests a small risk of encountering the zero bound when average inflation is at least 2 per cent. Central banks considering an inflation target much below 2 per cent must factor in possible difficulties that the zero bound on nominal interest rates might present for the conduct of monetary policy. Price stability is generally viewed among both academics and practitioners as the most appropriate long-run objective for monetary policy. In Canada the benefits of low stable and predictable inflation are clear. Since the Bank of Canada adopted an explicit inflation target in 1991 both the level and volatility of short- and long-maturity interest rates have declined. In addition real growth has been higher and more stable than in previous decades Longworth 2002 . Monetary policy aimed at achieving low and stable inflation in conjunction with sound fiscal policy has resulted in a stronger more resilient economy that is better equipped to weather shocks. Canada s strong economic performance since the adoption of a 2 per cent inflation target raises the question of whether the Bank of Canada should lower the target further. Even when measurement error is factored into the consumer price index CPI see Rossiter 2005 2 per cent inflation does not correspond to true price stability. Targeting a rate of inflation closer to zero may further reduce resource misallocations resulting from inflation uncertainty and reduce the frequency of price changes thereby lowering menu In addition to

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