tailieunhanh - The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption∗

For deposits, the amount deposited earns interest immediately, but the interest is paid into the account after a predetermined period of time. Each interest earning time period will vary from bank to bank and the type of deposit account. The deposit plus interest can then earn interest. When a deposit and previously earned interest earns interest, the interest earned is compounded. Some banks also charge fees for various banking services on deposit accounts; such as writing cheques, or using ATMs. The customer should ask if there are service fees, and how high they are | The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption Charles Goodhart Financial Markets Group London School of Economics A central bank s forecast must contain some assumption about the future path for its own policy-determined short-term interest rate. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three main alternatives i constant from the latest level ii as implicitly predicted from the yield curve iii chosen by the monetary policy committee MPC Most countries initially chose alternative i . With many central banks having planned to raise interest rates at a measured pace in the years 2004-06 there was a shift to ii . However Norway and now Sweden has followed New Zealand in adopting iii and the United Kingdom has also considered this move. So this is a lively issue. JEL Codes E47 E52 E58. 1. Introduction A central bank s forecast must contain some assumption about the likely future path for its own policy-determined short-term interest rate. Most of those central banks that have publicly reported their procedures in this respect have in the past assumed that interest rates would remain unchanged from their present level . in Sweden until recently 1 and in the United States at least most of My thanks are due to Peter Andrews David Archer Oriol Aspachs Charlie Bean Jarle Bergo Hyun Shin Lars Svensson Bent Vale Mike Woodford my two referees and the members of the Bank of England seminar on August 3 2005 for helpful comments. The views and remaining errors in this paper remain however my own responsibility. 1It was reported . in the Financial Times Lex column January 30 2007 in the article entitled Central Bank Forecasting that Sweden had joined the group plus New Zealand and Norway giving conditional forecasts of the expected future path of their own policy-determined interest rates. 85 86 International Journal of Central Banking June 2009 the time for Sweden see Berg Jansson and Vredin 2004 and Jansson and Vredin 2003 for the United States see Boivin 2004 .

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