tailieunhanh - Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates

In this paper, we investigate the effect of loan market competition on euro area banks’ retail pricing behaviour and focus, in particular, on its effect on the adjustment of retail bank interest rates to changes in market interest rates. Given the prominent role of the banking sector in the euro area’s financial system, it is of significant importance for the ECB to monitor the degree of competitive behaviour in the euro area banking market. A more competitive banking market is expected to drive down bank loan rates, adding to the welfare of households and enterprises. In addition, in a more. | Global Savings Investment and World Real Interest Rates Brigitte Desroches and Michael Francis International Department Over the past 25 years world long-term real interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline in the world real interest rate has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. Looking at the behaviour of desired world savings and investment provides insights into the factors likely to have contributed to the decline in the world real interest rate. The behaviour of the world real interest rate has been affected by a number of key variables that change relatively slowly over time. These variables include labour force growth which affects investment demand and the age structure of the world economy which influences savings. Other variables such as the level of financial development also affect savings. Since most of the key variables tend to change slowly it is unlikely that they will be a source of significant changes in world interest rates in the near future. ver the past 25 years long-term interest rates in the G-7 countries1 have declined to levels not seen since the This decline reflects both a fall in inflation expec tations and a decline in the real cost of borrowing. Although interest rates have increased in recent years with the cyclical expansion of the global economy and a moderate rise in inflation expectations real longterm interest rates remain at their lowest level in more than 35 years. As might be expected the current low level of the world real interest rate is being closely linked to the other major international macroeconomic topic of concern namely large imbalances in current account positions among major countries chiefly China and the United States. Although the two occurrences are undoubtedly related it is interesting to note that while the emergence of global imbalances is a relatively recent phenomenon the fall in real interest rates has developed gradually since the .

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