tailieunhanh - New Products Management- CHAPTER 11 SALES FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Tham khảo tài liệu 'new products management- chapter 11 sales forecasting and financial analysis', kinh doanh - tiếp thị, tiếp thị - bán hàng phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | CHAPTER 11 SALES FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ©2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All right reserved. Why Financial Analysis for New Products is Difficult Target users don’t know. If they know they might not tell us. Poor execution of market research. Market dynamics. Uncertainties about marketing support. Biased internal attitudes. Poor accounting. Rushing products to market. Basing forecasts on history. Technology revolutions. Forecasters Are Often Right In 1967 they said we would have: Artificial organs in humans by 1982. Human organ transplants by 1987. Credit cards almost eliminating currency by 1986. Automation throughout industry including some managerial decision making by 1987. Landing on moon by 1970. Three of four Americans living in cities or towns by 1986. Expenditures for recreation and entertainment doubled by 1986. Figure Forecasters Can Be Very Wrong They also said we would have: Permanent base on moon by 1987. Manned . | CHAPTER 11 SALES FORECASTING AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ©2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All right reserved. Why Financial Analysis for New Products is Difficult Target users don’t know. If they know they might not tell us. Poor execution of market research. Market dynamics. Uncertainties about marketing support. Biased internal attitudes. Poor accounting. Rushing products to market. Basing forecasts on history. Technology revolutions. Forecasters Are Often Right In 1967 they said we would have: Artificial organs in humans by 1982. Human organ transplants by 1987. Credit cards almost eliminating currency by 1986. Automation throughout industry including some managerial decision making by 1987. Landing on moon by 1970. Three of four Americans living in cities or towns by 1986. Expenditures for recreation and entertainment doubled by 1986. Figure Forecasters Can Be Very Wrong They also said we would have: Permanent base on moon by 1987. Manned planetary landings by 1980. Most urbanites living in high-rises by 1986. Private cars barred from city cores by 1986. Primitive life forms created in laboratory by 1989. Full color 3D TV globally available. Figure (cont’d.) Source: a 1967 forecast by The Futurist journal. Note: about two-thirds of the forecasts were correct! Commonly Used Forecasting Techniques Figure Handling Problems in Financial Analysis Improve your existing new products process. Use the life cycle concept of financial analysis. Reduce dependence on poor forecasts. Forecast what you know. Approve situations, not numbers (recall Campbell Soup example) Commit to low-cost development and marketing. Be prepared to handle the risks. Don’t use one standard format for financial analysis. Improve current financial forecasting methods. Forecasting Sales Using Purchase Intentions Use top-two-boxes scores obtained in concept testing, appropriately adjusted or calibrated. Example: Recall for hand cleanser from Chapter 9: .