tailieunhanh - POLICY REGIME CHANGE AND CORPORATE CREDIT IN BULGARIA: ASYMMETRIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESPONSES

As, in accordance with the acting banking regulations in Bulgaria bank are required to take collateral, the prior is that, in the case of proper screening, there would be a positive association between bank lending and the fixed capital ratio. Size is another variable that would allow to test the credit channel hypothesis. The prior is that a credit squeeze is more likely to affect smaller firms. Several variables reflect the specificity of bank lending in a transitional environment. Ownership is assumed to be associated with governance and thus should capture the way governance affects banks’ lending decisions. The presence. | The William Davidson Institute AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN BUSINESS SCHOOL POLICY REGIME CHANGE AND CORPORATE CREDIT IN BULGARIA ASYMMETRIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESPONSES By Rumen Dobrinsky and Nikolay Markov William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 607 September 2003 POLICY REGIME CHANGE AND CORPORATE CREDIT IN _ . . . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ A BULGARIA ASYMMETRIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESPONSES Rumen Dobrinsky a and Nikolay Markovb a UN Economic Commission for Europe Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva Switzerland tel. 41 22 917 2487 fax 41 22 917 0309 e-mail b Centre for Economic and Strategic Research 3 akad. Nikola Obreshkov street apt. 1 Sofia-1113 Bulgaria tel. fax 359 2 971 3267 973 2905 e-mail nmarkov@ The Centre for Economic and Strategic Research gratefully acknowledges financial support for this research from the European Commission PHARE-ACE project P98-1125-R and from the CERGE-EI Foundation under a program of the Global Development Network 2002 . The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily of the organizations they are affiliated with. POLICY REGIME CHANGE AND CORPORATE CREDIT IN BULGARIA ASYMMETRIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESPONSES ABSTRACT The paper seeks to assess how a major policy regime change - such as the introduction of the currency board in Bulgaria - affects the flow of bank credit to the corporate sector. An attempt is made to identify the determinants of corporate credit separately from the viewpoint of lenders and borrowers. The estimated credit supply and credit demand equations provide empirical evidence of important changes in microeconomic behavioral patterns which can be associated with the policy regime change. The results also suggest a considerable asymmetry in the response of credit supply and credit demand to the policy shock while the supply shifts were quite pronounced the patterns of firms credit demand remained fairly stable. The policy implications of the detected .

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