tailieunhanh - Wo rking Paper 90 Modeling Credit Aggregates

We use these theoretical underpinning to specify estimable equations for the supply of and demand for corporate credit. Since theory does not provide clues as to the possible structural forms of these equations we basically rely on reduced forms. Data considerations, in particular, the availability of relevant statistical data, also has played a certain role in the specification of these equations. In the absence of direct observations on supply and demand, observed bank lending only provides information on the intersection of the supply and demand curves and this is not sufficient to identify correctly each of the two schedules. The. | Ịg IONALBANK SyLviA Kaufmann and Maria-Teresa Valderrama Editorial Board of the Working Papers Eduard Hochreiter Coordinating Editor Ernest Gnan Guenther Thonabauer Peter Mooslechner Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald Statement of Purpose The Working Paper series of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank is designed to disseminate and to provide a platform for discussion of either work of the staff of the OeNB economists or outside contributors on topics which are of special interest to the OeNB. To ensure the high quality of their content the contributions are subjected to an international refereeing process. The opinions are strictly those of the authors and do in no way commit the OeNB. Imprint Responsibility according to Austrian media law Guenther Thonabauer Secretariat of the Board of Executive Directors Oesterreichische Nationalbank Published and printed by Oesterreichische Nationalbank Wien. The Working Papers are also available on our website http workpaper Editorial In this paper the authors model loans to households and to non-financial corporations as well as their relation to interest rates and demand variables for Austria Germany the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Credit aggregates are modeled using a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model which allows testing as to whether shocks to the economy have stronger effects during tight credit regimes or economic downturns. The analysis of the abovementioned countries makes it possible to assess the differences in the amplifying and asymmetric effects of credit aggregates between market-based and bankbased financial systems. September 20 .

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