tailieunhanh - Macroeconomic theory and policy phần 9

Tương tự như vậy, giá của nhiều sản phẩm xuất hiện không thay đổi trên một cơ sở hàng ngày hoặc thậm chí hàng tháng (ví dụ, báo giá, giá vé xe taxi, ăn nhà hàng, vv). Như thường, tuy nhiên, ấn tượng đầu tiên không phải là luôn luôn đúng, và nếu họ đang có, họ không phải lúc nào cũng dẫn đến một kết luận rõ ràng. | 238 CHAPTER 11. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEMS went wrong what happened was perfectly normal which is to say that everything is always going wrong in Argentina . Some people place the blame on the . dollar which strengthened relative to most currencies over the 1990s. Since the Peso was linked to the . dollar this had the effect of strengthening the Peso as well which evidently had the effect of making Argentina s exports uncompetitive on world markets. While there may be an element of truth to this argument one wonders how the . economy managed to cope with the rising value of its currency over the same period in which the . economy boomed . Likewise if the rising . dollar made Argentine exports less competitive what prevented Argentine exporters from cutting their prices A more plausible explanation may be the following. First the charter governing Argentina s currency board did not require that Pesos be fully backed by USD. Initially as much as one-third of Pesos issued could be backed by Argentine government bonds which are simply claims to future Pesos . In the event of a major speculative attack the currency board would not have enough USD reserves to defend the exchange rate. Furthermore it would likely have been viewed as implausible to expect the Argentine government to tax its citizens to make up for any shortfall in reserves. Second a combination of a weak economy and liberal government spending led to massive budget deficits in the late 1990s. The climbing deficit led to an increase in devaluation concerns. According to Spiegel 2002 roughly 20 billion in capital fled the country in Market participants were clearly worried about the government s ability to finance its growing debt position without resorting to an inflation tax Peso interest rates climbed to between 40-60 at this time . In an attempt to stem the outflow of capital the government froze bank deposits which precipitated a financial crisis. Finally the government simply