tailieunhanh - Making economic sense phần 6

Làm ý nghĩa kinh tế suy thoái, chỉ có thực hiện đoạn phim mang lại cho cả hai chúng tôi cùng một lúc. Tất cả mọi người đều sợ sử dụng bản án của mình vào việc chúng ta đang trong thời kỳ suy thoái, nó đã trở thành phong tục của tất cả mọi người nín thở chờ đợi những tuyên bố của Văn phòng Nghiên cứu Kinh tế Quốc gia (NBER), | 248 Making Economic Sense recessions it has only accomplished the feat of bringing us both at the same time. Everyone is afraid to use his judgment on whether we are in a recession it has become the custom of everyone to await breathlessly the pronouncement of the National Bureau of Economic Research NBER a much revered private institution which has established a Dating Committee of a handful of experts who sift the data to figure out when if ever a recession has begun. The problem is that it takes many months into a recession for the NBER to make up its mind by the time it pronounces that we re in a recession it is almost over. Thus the steep recession that started in November 1973 was only pronounced a recession a year later but six months after that by March 1975 we were on the way to recovery. Most recessions are over in a year or year and a half. Of course maybe that s the point for the Establishment to lull us all to sleep until the recession is over. The reason why it takes the NBER such a long time to make up its mind is because it feels that it has to get the precise month of the onset of the recession absolutely right and the reason it suffers from this precise month fetish which in all reason and common sense doesn t make a heck of a lot of difference is because the entire deeply flawed NBER approach to business cycles depends on getting the reference month down precisely and then basing all of its averages and leads and lags on that particular month. To date the recession one or two months either way would mess up all the calculations based on the NBER paradigm. And that of course comes first way before trying to figure out what is going on and getting the knowledge to the public as quickly as possible. Looking at the housing market unemployment debt liquidation and many other factors in 1988 I am willing to state flatly that we are in another inflationary recession. What does this mean It is heartwarming to see some economists welcoming the recession .