tailieunhanh - assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3

9 Trong trường hợp này, lãi suất tỷ lệ lây lan sẽ phản ánh sự tín nhiệm của người bảo lãnh không của khách hàng vay. Một lần nữa, nó không phải là khó khăn để tìm những ví dụ gần đây kỳ vọng như vậy cũng có thể có tín hiệu thị trường suy giảm. | tion periods because the high-inflation episodes would distort the historic mean. To avoid this we divided the sample according to whether inflation in the previous six months was higher than 150 percent and then constructed an index for each As noted in earlier studies that use the signals approach the dates of currency crises derived from this index map well onto the dates that would be obtained if one were to define crises by relying exclusively on events such as the closing of the exchange markets or a change in the exchange rate regime. Banking Crises Our dating of banking crises stresses events. This is because on the banking side there are no time series comparable to international reserves and the exchange rate. For instance in the banking panics of an earlier era large withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake of deposit insurance however bank deposits ceased to be useful for dating banking crises. As Japan s banking crisis highlights many modern financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet not from deposit withdrawals. Hence the performance of bank stocks relative to the overall equity market could be an indicator. Yet in many of the developing countries an important share of the banks are not traded publicly. Large increases in bankruptcies or nonperforming loans could also be used to mark the onset of the crisis. Indicators of business failures and nonperforming loans are however usually available only at low frequencies if at all the latter are also made less informative by banks desire to hide their problems for as long as possible. Given these data limitations we mark the beginning of a banking crisis by two types of events bank runs that lead to the closure merging or takeover by the public sector of one or more financial institutions as in Venezuela in 1993 and if there are no runs the closure merging takeover or large-scale government assistance of an important financial institution .

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