tailieunhanh - Global Economic Prospects Realizing the Development Promise of the Doha Agenda phần 2

với tốc độ dự kiến 2%. Suy thoái kinh tế toàn cầu bắt đầu vào năm 2001 với sự bùng nổ của bong bóng thị trường cổ phần phát triển thành một sự hồi phục nhẹ nhàng trong năm 2002. Ban đầu, sự suy giảm mạnh trong đầu tư kinh doanh là một yếu tố quan trọng đằng sau sự tăng trưởng chậm chạp, | Global Outlook and the Developing Countries The global economy continues to be weak For the third year in a row the global economy in 2003 is growing well below potential at an expected rate of 2 percent. The global slowdown that began in 2001 with the bursting of the equity-market bubble evolved into a subdued recovery during 2002. Initially the sharp downturn in business investment was a critical factor behind sluggish growth as corporations worldwide redressed the substantial financial imbalances that had emerged during the boom of the late 1990s. The pace of activity faltered again at end-2002 and early 2003 in response to events that undermined confidence the buildup to war in Iraq transatlantic tensions persistent concerns about terrorism and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS . Consumer and business confidence waned again and so did spending. Manufacturing production as well as GDP growth in the rich countries slowed considerably at the turn of the year. The momentum of goods production retrenched to negative territory and G-7 GDP growth braked from an annualized pace of percent during the third quarter of 2002 to percent by the first quarter of 2003. Developing countries faced a difficult environment in 2002 to mid 2003. Latin America s GDP contracted in 2002 because of political problems in Venezuela investor concerns about Brazil in the run-up to elections and fallout from Argentina s default. Per capita incomes will barely rise this year despite an en couraging rebound in most countries of the region. Activity in South Asia is holding up well. Countries in East Asia lost some growth momentum due to SARS but its apparent containment has opened the way to a resumption of rapid growth. Africa continues to underperform although the region s commodity prices have firmed they are still well below long-term trends. War has affected regional performance in the Middle East and North Africa while many countries in Central and Eastern .