tailieunhanh - Geological , Geotechnical Engineering in the New Millennium: Opportunities for Research and Technological Innovation

Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. These innovations, and the disruption they produce, have the potential to affect people and societies and therefore government policy, especially policy related to national security. Because the innovations can come from many sectors, they are difficult to predict and prepare for. The purpose of predicting technology is to minimize or eliminate this surprise. To aid in the development of forecasting methodologies and strategies, the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies of the National Research Council (NRC) was funded by the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA’s) Defense Warning Office (DWO). | PERSISTENT FORECASTING OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington . THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street . Washington DC 20001 NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by contract No. HHM40205D0011 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions findings conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author s and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13 978-0-309-11660-2 International Standard Book Number-10 0-309-11660-0 Limited copies are available from Additional copies are available from Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences National Research Council 500 Fifth Street . Washington DC 20001 202 334-3118 The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street . Lockbox 285 Washington DC 20001 800 624-6242 or 202 334-3313 in the Washington metropolitan area http Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of .