tailieunhanh - The Future Security Environment in the Middle East - Conflict, Stability, and Political Change

The security environment in the Middle East has become increasingly complicated during the past decade. This report identifies several important trends that are shaping regional security and identifies their implications for the United States. Many traditional security concerns, such as energy security and the proliferation of weapons | The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict Stability and Political Change Edited by Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited RAND Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division Directorate of Plans Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bensahel Nora 1971- The future security environment in the Middle East conflict stability and political change Nora Bensahel Daniel L. Byman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. MR-1640. ISBN 0-8330-3290-9 pbk. alk. paper 1. Middle East Strategic aspects. 2. United States Military policy. I. Byman Daniel 1967- . 2003 355 033056 dc22 2003020980 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. RAND is a registered trademark. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street . Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street Suite 202 Pittsburgh PA 15213-1516 RAND URL http To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Email order@ PREFACE This collection of papers examines emerging security trends that will shape the Persian Gulf in the coming years. .