tailieunhanh - WETLAND AND WATER RESOURCE MODELING AND ASSESSMENT: A Watershed Perspective - Chapter 20

Tốc độ nhanh chóng và thâm nhập của thay đổi cảnh quan đã có những dự đoán lỗ hổng đầu nguồn để thay đổi cảnh quan là một thách thức quan trọng cho thế kỷ 21. Sông hệ sinh thái, đặc biệt, trực tiếp phụ thuộc vào cấu trúc cảnh quan và thành phần nước đặc trưng của họ và ngân sách tài liệu. Mặc dù nó được thừa nhận rộng rãi rằng thay đổi cảnh quan đặt ra những rủi ro nghiêm trọng cho hệ sinh thái sông, định lượng các hiệu ứng trong quá khứ và rủi ro. | 20 Integrated Modeling of the Muskegon River Tools for Ecological Risk Assessment in a Great Lakes Watershed Michael J. Wiley Bryan C. Pijanowski R. Jan Stevenson Paul Seelbach Paul Richards Catherine M. Riseng David W. Hyndman and John K. Koches INTRODUCTION The rapid pace and pervasiveness of landscape modification has made predicting watershed vulnerability to landscape change a key challenge for the twenty-first century. River ecosystems are in particular directly dependent on landscape structure and composition for their characteristic water and material budgets. Although it is widely acknowledged that landscape change poses serious risks to river ecosystems quantification of past effects and future risks is problematic. Important issues of scale hierarchy and public investment intervene to complicate both assessment of current condition and the prediction of riverine responses to changes in landscape structure. In this paper we demonstrate how neural-net approaches to landscape change prediction can be coupled with river valley segment classification to provide a framework for integrated modeling and risk assessment across large-scale river ecosystems. Specifically we report on progress and techniques being employed in a collaborative risk assessment for the Muskegon River watershed a large and valuable tributary of Lake Michigan. Both watershed-based modeling and river classification have been proposed as methods of simplifying analysis in order to more efficiently protect river ecosystems Hawkes 1975 Hudson et al. 1992 Maxwell et al. 1995 Wiley et al. 1997 . Linking typical status and risk assessment models . bio-assessment protocols or predictive models see Wiley et al. 2002 to explicit classification systems Seelbach and Wiley 2005 however remains a key methodological challenge. Ideally a solution would provide both a spatially explicit classification system that simplifies the natural complexity of our rivers and a method for coordinating suites