tailieunhanh - Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism

Historical experience has shown that successful strategies to combat terrorism that is spawned by serious, deep-rooted problems have involved first crushing the current threat and then bringing about changes to make terrorism’s reemergence less likely. While deterrence of terrorism may at first glance seem to be an unrealistic goal | Deterrence Influence in Counterterrorism A Component in the War on al Qaeda Paul K. Davis Brian Michael Jenkins Prepared for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency RAND National Defense Research Institute Approved for public release distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The research was conducted in RAND s National Defense Research Institute a federally funded research and development center supported by the Office of the Secretary of Defense the Joint Staff the unified commands and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-01-C-0004. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Davis Paul K. 1943- Deterrence and influence in counterterrorism a component in the war on al Qaeda Paul K. Davis Brian Michael Jenkins. p. cm. Mr-1619. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3286-0 1. Terrorism Prevention. 2. Qaida Organization 3. September 11 Terrorist Attacks 2001. I. Jenkins Brian Michael. . HV6431 .D3 2002 2 dc21 2002035800 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street . Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street Suite 202 Pittsburgh PA 15213-1516 RAND URL http To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Email order@ PREFACE This monograph summarizes the findings of a .

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