tailieunhanh - Stock trader almanac 2005 phần 3

CHỈ Tháng Mười Hai LOW: PROGNOSTICATING CÔNG CỤ HỮU ÍCH Chỉ số tháng mười hai Low mang đến sự chú ý của chúng tôi một vài năm trước đây bởi Jeffrey Saut, giám đốc chiến lược đầu tư tại Raymond James. Về cơ bản, nếu chỉ số Dow Jones đóng cửa dưới mức thấp nhất kết thúc tháng mười hai của mình trong quý đầu tiên, nó là một dấu hiệu cảnh báo. Các phân tích ban đầu được cho là của Hooper Lucien, một chuyên mục của tạp chí Forbes và Wall trở lại nhà phân tích phố trong những. | THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL The December Low Indicator was brought to our attention a few years ago by Jeffrey Saut managing director of investment strategy at Raymond James. Basically if the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter it is a warning sign. The original analysis is credited to Lucien Hooper a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst back in the 1970s. Hooper dismissed the importance of January and January s first week as reliable indicators. He noted that the trend could be random or even manipulated during a holiday-shortened week. Instead said Hooper Pay much more attention to the December low. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year watch out Twelve of the 26 occurrences were followed by gains for the rest of the year and full-year gains after the low for the year was reached. For perspective we ve included the January Barometer readings for the selected years. Hooper s Watch Out warning was absolutely correct though. All but one of the instances since 1952 experienced further declines as the Dow fell an additional on average when December s low was breached in Q1. Only three significant drops occurred not shown when December s low was not breached in Q1 1974 1981 and 1987 . Both indicators were wrong only three times and three years ended flat. If the December low is not crossed turn to our January Barometer for guidance. It has been virtually perfect right nearly 100 of these times view the complete results at http 2005p040 . YEARS DOW FELL BELOW DECEMBER LOW IN FIRST QUARTER Previous Date Crossing Subseq. Change Rest of Year Full Year Jan Year Dec Low Crossed Price Low Cross-Low Change Change Bar 1952 2 19 52 - 2 1953 2 11 53 - - - - 1956 1 9 56 - - 1957 1 18 57 - - - - 1960 1 12 60 .