tailieunhanh - Learning To Understanding Market Mayhem_3

Nếu tất cả mọi người thực hiện điều này cùng một lúc, giá của các tài sản rủi ro tốt bắt đầu giảm, và ngay sau đó trông giống như tất cả các tài sản rủi ro là những tài sản xấu. | 90 The Cost OF Capitalism have to start selling your good risky assets. If everyone does this at the same time the price of good risky assets begins to fall and soon it looks like all risky assets are bad assets. That is the Minsky moment. And so in December 1990 with the world captivated by the imminent war in Iraq I wrote a research paper entitled Cash at Long Long Last Is Trash see sidebar . The piece elevated the S L crisis to center stage. A bankrupt thrift industry it seemed clear to me would prevent any reasonable rebound for housing. Therefore the economy would struggle for an extended period. My all-encompassing one-liner for the Shearson Lehman sales force Not Iraq and the tanks Debt and the Banks And the punch line for the forecast explained the research report s title. The Federal Reserve would not be tightening to contain rising inflationary pressures associated with the jump for oil prices. Instead we would witness dramatic Fed ease. The collapse for money market rates would force investors to move out of money market funds and into stocks and bonds. Thus cash returns would become trash returns to the benefit of stocks bonds and the economy. CASH AT LONG LONG LAST IS TRASH Equity ownership or a piece of the action is the essence of the difference between capitalist-based economies and the planned economies of the Soviet Union China and until recently Eastern Europe. Yet the last three years have witnessed both the wholesale collapse of the economic and social structure of these planned economies and near universal disillusion with Wall Street the most visible and dynamic capital market in the world. The irony of the 1980s then is that while communism failed the free world s economic cornerstone fell into disrepute. Our thesis for the 1990s reflects our belief that today s recession is finishing the work begun in the recessions of the early 1980s. Simply put we believe that the coming . expansion will be one that preserves the low inflation of the .