tailieunhanh - Credit Portfolio Management phần 4

S & P Kỳ rằng "nghiên cứu mặc định của Standard & Poor đã tìm thấy một mối tương quan rõ ràng giữa các xếp hạng tín dụng và rủi ro mặc định: càng cao đánh giá, thấp hơn các xác suất mặc định "Ngoài ra các xác suất này mặc định ngụ ý, sản lượng CreditModel cũng chỉ ra ba yếu tố đầu vào có ảnh hưởng nhất trên điểm số tín dụng. | Data Requirements and Sources for Credit Portfolio Management 95 Because it has data on loans the FRM Loan Loss Database is able to look at differences in recovery rates for loans versus bonds. The data in Exhibit are similar to those from S P PMD see Exhibit . FRM calculates average recovery rates by several classifications such as collateral type defaulted loan amount borrower size borrower type and industry of the borrower. Subscribers to the Loan Loss Database receive all the underlying data points except for borrower and lender names so they can verify the FRM calculated results or perform additional analysis using alternative discount rates or different segmentation of the data. Exhibit illustrates the bimodal nature of the recovery rate distribution that is estimated by FRM s Loan Loss Database. A significant number of loans to defaulted borrowers recover nearly all the defaulted exposure and a significant number of loans to defaulted borrowers recover little or none of the defaulted exposure. This evidence suggests that it is preferable to incorporate probability distributions of recovery levels when generating expected and unexpected loss estimates through simulation exercises rather than use a static average recovery level since the frequency of defaulted loans that actually recover the average amount may in fact be quite low. Studies Based on Secondary Market Prices Altman and Kishore In 1996 Ed Altman and Vellore Kishore published an examination of the recovery EXHIBIT Fitch Risk Management Loan Loss Database Recovery on Loans vs. Bonds Source Fitch Risk Management Loan Loss Database. Data presented are for illustration purposes only but are directionally consistent with trends observed in Fitch Risk Management s Loan Loss Database. 96 THE CREDIT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROCESS Recovery Rate EXHIBIT Fitch Risk Management Loan Loss Database Distribution of Loan Recovery Rates Source Fitch Risk Management Loan Loss Database. Data .

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