tailieunhanh - Environmental Modelling with GIs and Remote Sensing - Chapter 2

Mô hình môi trường mô phỏng các chức năng của các quá trình môi trường. Động cơ đằng sau phát triển một mô hình môi trường thường xuyên để giải thích hành vi phức tạp trong các hệ thống môi trường, hoặc cải thiện sự hiểu biết của một hệ thống. Mô hình môi trường cũng có thể ngoại suy thông qua thời gian để dự đoán các điều kiện môi trường trong tương lai, hoặc để so sánh hành vi dự báo quá trình hoặc hiện tượng quan sát. Tuy nhiên, một mô hình không nên được sử dụng. | 2 Taxonomy of environmental models in the spatial sciences Andrew K. Skidmore INTRODUCTION Environmental models simulate the functioning of environmental processes. The motivation behind developing an environmental model is often to explain complex behaviour in environmental systems or improve understanding of a system. Environmental models may also be extrapolated through time in order to predict future environmental conditions or to compare predicted behaviour to observed processes or phenomena. However a model should not be used for both prediction and explanation tasks simultaneously. Geographic information system GIS models may be varied in space in time or in the state variables. In order to develop and validate a model one factor should be varied and all others held constant. Environmental models are being developed and used in a wide range of disciplines at scales ranging from a few meters to the whole earth as well as for purposes including management of resources solving environmental problems and developing policies. GIS and remote sensing provide tools to extrapolate models in space as well as to upscale models to smaller scales. Aristotle wrote about a two-step process of firstly using one s imagination to inquire and discover and a second step to demonstrate or prove the discovery Britannica 1989 14 67 . This approach is the basis of the scientific approach and is applied universally for environmental model development in GIS. In the section on empirical models the statistical method of firstly exploring data sets in order to discover pattern and then confirming the pattern by statistical inference follows this process in a classical manner. But other model types also rely on this process of inquiry and then proof. For example the section on process models shows how theoretical models based on experience observation and or field data can be built. Why spend time developing taxonomy of environmental models - does it serve any purpose except for .