tailieunhanh - Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth

The average number of living children is lower in Phnom Penh than in the five provinces. This apparently is the result of lower past fertility levels of current Phnom Penh elderly rather than higher losses of children through mortality. In fact, respondents in Phnom Penh report fewer deaths of their children than do those in the provinces (results not shown). Older elders average somewhat smaller numbers of surviving children than younger elders. This reflects higher mortality among the children of older elders due at least in part to the longer exposure to mortality to which. | Program on the Global Demography of aging Working Paper Series Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom David Canning and Gunther Fink January 2011 PGDA Working Paper No. 64 http pgda The views expressed in this paper are those of the author s and not necessarily those of the Harvard Initiative for Global Health. The Program on the Global Demography of Aging receives funding from the National Institute on Aging Grant No. 1 P30 AG024409-06. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom David Canning and Gunther Fink Harvard School of Public Health January 2011 Support for this work was provided by the Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University funded by Award Number P30AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute on Aging or the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Marija Ozolins and Larry Rosenberg for their assistance in the preparation of this paper. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom David Canning and Gunther Fink Abstract Between 2005 and 2050 the share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world. Insofar as this shift will tend to lower both labor force participation and savings rates it raises bona fide concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. These concerns apply to both developed and developing countries. An examination of past decades data for OECD countries reveals that life expectancy has increased much faster than the legal age of retirement. Indications are similar in developing countries which face the additional challenge of getting old before they get rich . This paper analyses the implications of population aging for economic growth. Our main conclusion is that population aging poses challenges that are .