tailieunhanh - Chris Brooks Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting_3

Tham khảo tài liệu 'chris brooks real estate modelling and forecasting_3', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư bất động sản phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Applications of regression analysis 203 Figure Actual fitted and residual values of rent growth regressions 30 1 20 J 10 0 -10 -I -20 - -30 J a Actual and fitted - model A b Actual and fitted - model B -20 30 20 10 -10 c Residuals - models A and B unchanged. The DW statistic in both models takes a value that denotes the absence of first-order correlation in the residuals of the equations. The coefficient on OFSgt suggests that if we use model A a 1 per cent rise in OFSgt will on average push real rent growth up by per cent whereas according to model B it would rise by per cent. One may ask what the real sensitivity of RRg to OFSg is. In reality OFSg is not the only variable affecting real rent growth in Frankfurt. By accounting for other effects in our case for vacancy and changes in vacancy the sensitivity of RRg to OFSg changes. If we run a regression of RRg on OFSg only the sensitivity is per cent. OFSg on its own will certainly encompass influences from other variables however - that is the influence of other variables on rents is occurring indirectly through OFSg. This happens because the variables that have an influence on rent growth are to a degree correlated. The presence of other statistically significant variables takes away from OFSg and affects the size of its coefficient. The coefficient on vacancy in model B implies that if vacancy rises by 1 per cent it will push real rent growth down by per cent in the same year. The interpretation of the coefficient on Ak4Ct-i is less straightforward. If the vacancy change declines by one percentage point - that is from say a fall of per cent to a fall of per cent - rent growth will respond by rising per cent after a year due to the one-year lag . The actual and fitted values are plotted along with the residuals in figure . 204 Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting The fitted values replicate to a degree the upward trend of real rent growth in the 1980s but certainly not the