tailieunhanh - The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change phần 7

điều kiện, các yếu tố của luận án này nghi ngờ, với mức tăng trưởng chậm hơn trong nền kinh tế thế giới và triển vọng đầu tư năng lượng mới ở vùng Vịnh, trong đó có Iraq, và các nơi khác. Nó cũng là một điểm cho rằng chấp nhận giả định tương đối bi quan về dự trữ cạn kiệt. Quan điểm này là phổ biến, | Energy and Middle Eastern Security 203 conditions elements of this thesis look doubtful with slower growth in the world economy and the prospect of new energy investments in the Gulf including Iraq and elsewhere. It is also a view that accepts relatively pessimistic assumptions regarding reserve depletion. This view is common especially among oil analysts in the Middle East and implies renewed friction between producers and consumers in the near term with oil prices in the 50 barrel range a distinct possibility. A third school sees trouble arising from glut rather than scarcity. In this view the increasing efficiency of exploration and production is counterbalancing growing demand virtually all analysts agree on the significance of new demand in Asia for the global energy picture over the next decades . The exploitation of Caspian oil Venezuelan tar sands and other less conventional sources together with the end of restrictions on new investment in Iraq and the eventual end of such restrictions in Libya and perhaps Iran will further boost proven reserves and increase capacity. The result could be prolonged periods of cheap oil helpful for consumers in the West as well as the developing world but potentially destabilizing across the Middle East and Eurasia. This is an energy security argument that sees security risks arising from conditions within key producing states growing populations and mounting debt with energy revenues steady or declining. The resulting unrest could undermine already precarious regimes in the Gulf North Africa and even the Caspian. This in turn could lead to supply interruptions of a very different sort as internal strife interferes with production and Apart from periods of crisis this is a world of sustained prices as low as 10 barrrel. This analysis aims above all to characterize the debate and set parameters for expectations through 2010. A consensus view taking into account demographic and political as well as economic .