tailieunhanh - The Future Security Environment in the Middle East Conflict, Stability, and Political Change phần 6

khoảng 94% đối với nam và 80% đối với phụ nữ. Trong mười năm qua, trường tỷ lệ nhập học đã tăng gần 4% một năm. Thật không may, tốc độ tăng trưởng dân số đe dọa phá hoại những thành tựu này. Dân số của Jordan đã được ước tính khoảng vào năm 1990, trước khi dòng đồng đến người nước ngoài, | 166 The Future Security Environment in the Middle East PARAMETERS OF REGIME CHANGE Regime change and its implications are difficult for outsiders to predict. Western knowledge of elite politics in the Middle East is often limited. Indeed even well informed locals are often caught by surprise Few in Jordan anticipated that King Hussein would alter the long-established successor from his brother Hassan to his son Abdullah in his dying weeks. At times the surprise is far more dramatic. Iran suffered a revolution in 1979 that caught almost all observers by surprise other countries regularly suffered coups or unrest that few predicted. Leaders differ tremendously even if their countries social systems and strategic environments hold constant. Leaders are capable of dramatically changing their country s foreign policy orientation going to war despite unfavorable military circumstances designing new domestic institutions or weakening old ones or otherwise shaping in addition to reacting to their domestic political structures and international Egypt s President Sadat for example led Egypt out of the Soviet camp into the American one conducted a successful surprise attack on Israel negotiated a peace agreement with Israel liberalized Egypt s economy and otherwise transformed Egypt s domestic regional and international policies. Indeed dramatic rapid regime change is possible in the Middle East where both demagogues and visionaries have appeared with surprising frequency. During the 1950s and 1960s Egypt Iraq Libya Syria and Yemen all experienced military coups. In 1979 a popular revolution ousted the Iranian regime. Algeria s attempt to open up its political process in the early 1990s led to a de facto military coup and a civil war. Even such democratic countries as Turkey and Israel have dramatically changed their policies when new leaders have risen to the fore. Greater public influence on decisionmaking is also possible and may even be likely. As .