tailieunhanh - Báo cáo y học: "Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về y học được đăng trên tạp chí y học quốc tế cung cấp cho các bạn kiến thức về ngành y đề tài: " Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19 | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling BioMed Central Research Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia Germany from 1918-19 Hiroshi Nishiura1 2 Address Department of Medical Biometry University of Tubingen Westbahnhofstr. 55 Tubingen D-72070 Germany and 2Research Center for Tropical Infectious Diseases Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical Medicine 1-12-4 Sakamoto Nagasaki 852-8523 Japan Email Hiroshi Nishiura - Open Access Published 4 June 2007 Received 23 April 2007 Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2007 4 20 doi 1742-4682-4-20 Accepted 4 June 2007 This article is available from http content 4 1 20 2007 Nishiura licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http licenses by which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract_ Background Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia Germany from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919 and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number Rt defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time. Results A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data assuming three different serial intervals . 1 3 and 5 days . The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval . the longer the assumed serial interval the higher the reproduction number. Moreover the .