tailieunhanh - Báo cáo y học: " A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về y học được đăng trên tạp chí y học quốc tế cung cấp cho các bạn kiến thức về ngành y đề tài: A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread. | Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling BioMed Central Research A mechanistic model of infection why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread Timo Smieszek Open Access Address Institute for Environmental Decisions Natural and Social Science Interface ETH Zurich Universitaetsstrasse 22 8092 Zurich Switzerland Email Timo Smieszek - Published 17 November 2009 Received 14 August 2009 T __J .J. J. .IA I iozm n I O z ir Accepted 17 November 2009 Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2009 6 25 doi 1742-4682-6-25 This article is available from http content 6 1 25 2009 Smieszek licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http licenses by which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Background Mathematical models and simulations of disease spread often assume a constant per-contact transmission probability. This assumption ignores the heterogeneity in transmission probabilities . due to the varying intensity and duration of potentially contagious contacts. Ignoring such heterogeneities might lead to erroneous conclusions from simulation results. In this paper we show how a mechanistic model of disease transmission differs from this commonly used assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. Methods We present an exposure-based mechanistic model of disease transmission that reflects heterogeneities in contact duration and intensity. Based on empirical contact data we calculate the expected number of secondary cases induced by an infector i for the mechanistic model and ii under the classical assumption of a constant per-contact transmission probability. The results of both approaches are compared for different basic reproduction numbers R0. Results