tailieunhanh - Báo cáo y học: "A plague on five of your houses – statistical reassessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về y học được đăng trên tạp chí y học quốc tế cung cấp cho các bạn kiến thức về ngành y đề tài: A plague on five of your houses – statistical reassessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk, England, between 1906 and 1918. | Egan Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2010 7 39 http content 7 1 39 THEORETICAL BIOLOGY AND MEDICAL MODELLING RESEARCH Open Access A plague on five of your houses - statistical reassessment of three pneumonic plague outbreaks that occurred in Suffolk England between 1906 and 1918 Joseph R Egan Correspondence . Microbial Risk Assessment Emergency Response Department Health Protection Agency Porton Down Salisbury Wiltshire SP4 0JG UK 2 BioMed Central Abstract Background Plague is a re-emerging disease and its pneumonic form is a high priority bio-terrorist threat. Epidemiologists have previously analysed historical outbreaks of pneumonic plague to better understand the dynamics of infection transmission and control. This study examines 3 relatively unknown outbreaks of pneumonic plague that occurred in Suffolk England during the first 2 decades of the twentieth century. Methods The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is used to compare the symptomatic period and the length of time between successive cases . the serial interval with previously reported values. Consideration is also given to the case fatality ratio the average number of secondary cases resulting from each primary case in the observed minor outbreaks termed Rminor and the proportion of individuals living within an affected household that succumb to pneumonic plague via the index case . the household secondary attack rate SAR . Results 2 of the 14 cases survived giving a case fatality ratio of 86 95 confidence interval CI 57 98 . For the 12 fatal cases the average symptomatic period was days standard deviation SD days and for the 11 non index cases the average serial interval was days SD days . Rminor was calculated to be SD and in 2 households the SAR was approximately 14 95 CI 0 58 and 20 95 CI 1 72 respectively. Conclusions The symptomatic period was approximately 1 day longer on average than in an earlier study but the .