tailieunhanh - Implications for Energy Markets and Activity

The experience of previous oil price shocks has shown that these shocks can provide an important catalyst for policies to encourage demand reduction, substitution to other fuels, and development of new sources of energy supply. | SPECIAL FOCUS 2 RUSSIA S INVASION OF UKRAINE Implications for Energy Markets and Activity G LO BAL EC O NO MIC P ROS P EC TS J U NE 2022 S P EC IAL FO CU S 2 81 The Russian Federation s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global energy markets and damaged the global economy. Compared to what took place in the 1970s the shock has led to a surge in prices across a broader set of energy-related commodities. In energy-importing economies higher prices will reduce real disposable incomes raise production costs tighten financial conditions and constrain policy space. Some energy exporters may bene- fit from improved terms of trade and higher commodities production. However on net model-based estimates suggest that the war-driven surge in energy prices could reduce global output by percent after two years. The experience of previous oil price shocks has shown that these shocks can provide an important catalyst for policies to encourage demand reduction substitution to other fuels and development of new sources of energy supply. Introduction percent increase between January 2020 and December 2021 figures . Based on Volatility in energy markets driven by a strong current projections energy prices are expected to demand recovery from the pandemic and rise by 50 percent in 2022 reflecting an 81 numerous pandemic-related supply constraints is percent increase in coal prices a 74 percent rise in being exacerbated by Russia s invasion of Ukraine. natural gas prices average of the European Japan The invasion has led to significant disruptions to and . benchmarks and a 42 percent increase the trade and production of energy commodities in the price of oil. Relative to January projections as Russia is the world s largest exporter of natural the prices of energy commodities are now gas and accounts for a significant share of global expected to be 46 percent higher on average in coal and crude oil exports figure . However the ultimate impact of these .

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• Implications for Energy Markets
• Implications for Activity
• Constrain policy space
• Volatility in energy markets
• Energy shocks
• Costly is energy conservation
• GDP relationship re examined
• Economic structure
• Makes a unique contribution
• Positive shocks is greater