tailieunhanh - Chính sách dân số từ góc nhìn biến đổi mức sinh ở Việt Nam giai đoạn từ nay đến 2030

Bài viết tìm hiểu mục tiêu và giải pháp của chính sách dân số theo vùng trong giai đoạn hiện nay có tính khả thi và phù hợp như thế nào đối với việc đảm bảo duy trì mức sinh thay thế trên phạm vi cả nước. | VNU Journal of Science Policy and Management Studies Vol. 36 No. 4 2020 26-34 Review Article Population Policy and Fertility Change in Vietnam in the Period from now to 2030 Ha Viet Hung1 Tran Thi Minh Ngoc2 1 Institute for Sociology and Development Ho Chi Minh National Political Academy 135 Nguyen Phong Sac Cau Giay Hanoi Vietnam 2 Academy of Politics Region I 15 Khuat Duy Tien Thanh Xuan Hanoi Vietnam Received 24 August 2020 Revised 03 November 2020 Accepted 05 November 2020 Abstract It is known that Vietnam has started an aging period that accompanied with the challenge of labor shortage for economic development. The way of fertility change in the modern society is that the more the socio-economic development the lower the level of fertility. The practice of fertility change in developed countries indicates that it has been very difficult to enhance the level of fertility once it was rather lower than the replacement one. The potential of increasing for an economy would depend much on the percentage of increasing labor force. Under the market economy the labor force is floating from areas to areas by the way of demand-supply. People are moving from regions with excess of labors to regions with shortage of labor. For the whole country the labor force would move from 33 provinces cities of the higher fertility to those 21 provinces cities of the lower fertility therefore keeping the fertility at replacement level for the whole country. It is not rational to set up a target of decreasing fertility by 10 for 33 provinces cities of the higher fertility because it would not keep the general fertility at replacement level in the period from now up to 2030. Keywords Population transition population policy total fertility rate. ________ Corresponding author. Email address hunghv135@ https 2588-1116 26 . Hung . Ngoc VNU Journal of Science Policy and Management Studies Vol. 36 No. 4 2020 26-34 27 Chính sách dân số từ góc nhìn