tailieunhanh - Do crude petroleum imports affect GDP of turkey?

This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain pct. of the GDP, whereas pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks. | Journal of Applied Finance Banking vol. 5 no. 4 2015 61-72 ISSN 1792-6580 print version 1792-6599 online Scienpress Ltd 2015 Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey Meliha Ener1 Cuneyt Kiliẹ2 and Feyza Balan3 Abstract This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5 significance level but not vice versa. Moreover the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However after eighth quarters the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain pct. of the GDP whereas pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks. JEL classification numbers O49 053 Q41 Keywords Vector autoregression Generalized impulse responses GDP Crude petroleum imports Turkey 1 Introduction Petrol has been one of the mostly used and therefore consumed sources among other energy sources. Petrol consumption trends have been on the rise in recent years due to the factors such as progress in technology by the help of globalization industrialization increasing numbers of world population urbanization transportation and logistics services. Compared to the increase in demand for petrol capacity increases in petrol supply cannot be achieved since it is not a renewable energy source leading to the result of increased petrol prices. 1Canakkale Onsekiz .

• Kinh tế học
• Vector autoregression
• Generalized impulse responses
• Crude petroleum imports
• GDP of turkey
• GDP initially