tailieunhanh - Handbook of Economic Forecasting part 96

Handbook of Economic Forecasting part 96. Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing | Table 3 Classical cycles dating of coincident and leading indexes Peak Trough Coincident Leading AMP Coincident Leading AMP NBER AMP CB OECD ECRI SW NBER AMP CB OECD ECRI SW Apr 1960 May 1960 Jan 1959 Jan 1960 Jan 1959 Aug 1959 Feb 1961 Feb 1961 Mar 1960 Dec 1960 Oct 1960 May 1960 Jan 1962 Jun 1962 Apr 1966 Apr 1966 Apr 1966 Feb 1966 Dec 1966 Nov 1966 Dec 1966 Jul 1966 Dec 1969 Nov 1969 May 1969 Jan 1969 Jan 1969 MISSING Nov 1970 Nov 1970 Apr 1970 Apr 1970 Jul 1970 MISSING Nov 1973 Dec 1973 Feb 1973 Feb 1973 Jun 1973 Jan 1973 Mar 1975 Mar 1975 Jan 1975 Dec 1974 Jan 1975 Aug 1974 Jan 1980 Feb 1980 Nov 1978 Aug 1978 Nov 1978 Jun 1979 Jul 1980 Jul 1980 Apr 1980 Apr 1980 May 1980 Aug 1981 Jul 1981 Aug 1981 Nov 1980 Nov 1980 May 1981 MISSING Nov 1982 Dec 1982 Jan 1982 Feb 1982 Aug 1982 MISSING Feb 1984 Oct 1985 Sep 1984 Jun 1986 Jul 1988 Jun 1989 Jul 1990 Jul 1990 Feb 1990 Mar 1990 Oct 1989 Feb 1990 Mar 1991 Mar 1991 Jan 1991 Dec 1990 Dec 1990 Jan 1991 Nov 1994 Dec 1994 May 1995 Apr 1995 May 1998 I Oct 1998 Mar 2001 Oct 2000 Feb 2000 Feb 2000 Feb 2000 MISSING Nov 2001 Dec 2001 Mar 2001 Oct 2001 Oct 2001 MISSING Jul 2002 MISSING May 2002 MISSING Feb 2002 Apr 2003 MISSING MISSING Apr 2003 MISSING NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP NBER AMP Average lead 10 11 99 9 10 7 8 9 9 4 43 3 89 St. dev. 2 .89 1. 11 1 False alarms 33 33 33 2 2 3 3 3 33 3 22 Missing 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 4 Note Shaded values are false alarms MISSING indicates a missed turning point. Leads longer than 18 months are considered false alarms. Negative leads are considered missed turning points. AMP dating based on algorithm in Artis Marcellino and Proietti 2004 . indicates no previous available observation. Based on final release of data. 924 M. Marcellino Ch. 16 Leading Indicators 925 Table 4 Correlations of HP band pass filtered composite leading indexes HPBP-CLIcB HPBP-CLIoecd HPBP-CLIecri hpbp-clisw .