tailieunhanh - Grid based probabilistic earthquake forecast for Iran

In this paper, a model of earthquake forecast is presented to assess the long-term probabilities of future earthquakes with moderate magnitudes for a region including Iran (latitude 25-40° and longitude 44-62°). The model estimates a coupled rate of magnitude, space and time for future seismicity using a spatial-temporal Poisson process. | JSEE Vol. 18, No. 4, 2016 This is an extended version of the paper presented in SEE7 conferenc e, peer-reviewed again and approved by the JSEE editorial board. Grid-Based Probabilistic Earthquake Forecast for Iran Mohammad Talebi 1, Mehdi Zare 2*, and Anooshiravan Ansari 3 Received: 15/08/2016 Accepted: 14/12/2016 1. . Candidate, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran 2. Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran, * Corresponding Author; email: mzare@ 3. Assistant Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran AB S T RA CT Keywords: Earthquake forecast; Long-term probabilities of earthquakes; Isotropic adaptive kernel; Iran In this paper, a model of earthquake forecast is presented to assess the long-term probabilities of future earthquakes with moderate magnitudes for a region including Iran (latitude 25-40° and longitude 44-62°). The model estimates a coupled rate of magnitude, space and time for future seismicity using a spatial-temporal Poisson process. The smoothed spatial distribution of seismicity is measured by an adaptive kernel using the locations of past M ³ earthquakes listed in the ISC catalog in the period of 1980 to 2014. The retrospective area skill score test has been carried out to check the significant of the results, using a spatially uniform reference model. At 95% confidence level, the model was not rejected by the test. Moreover, the results show a meaningful correlation between anomalies of the forecasted map and the epicenters of target events occurred from 2015 to 2016. Based on the results, it is concluded that the areas characterized by high forecasted rates of seismicity could be considered as the highly hazardous ones, most likely to seismic activation in the Iranian plateau. 1. Introduction The Iranian plateau is one of the most seismically active regions

• Địa Lý
• Evaluation of earthquake potential
• Grid based probabilistic earthquake forecast for Iran
• Grid based probabilistic earthquake forecast
• Probabilistic earthquake forecast
• Spatial temporal Poisson process
• Evaluation of earthquake potential in the zagros region
• The zagros region
• Seismic strain and seismicityparameters
• Zagros indicating less frequent moderate
• Dependence of ductility response spectra
• The seismogenic depth from finite element earthquake rupture simulations
• Finite element earthquake rupture simulations
• A particular earthquake
• The strength and elastic analysis
• Empirical relationships based on the P wave envelop
• The P wave envelop
• Distance and magnitude estimation
• Earthquake early warning in Iran
• Earthquake Early Warning
• Estimation of the frequency dependent shear wave attenuation
• Acceleration spectra of the Ahar
• Varzeghan earthquake 2012
• The frequency dependent shear wave attenuation
• High relative risk
• Optimum seismic design of tuned story mass damper
• Multi objective genetic algorithm
• Tuned story mass damper
• The noncontrolled system
• Adaptive fuzzy C mean clustering
• Ground motion prediction equations
• The C mean clustering algorithm
• Next generation attenuation
• Fragility curves for vulnerability assessment
• Steel moment resisting frames adjacent to slopes
• The probability damage growth rate
• The damage probability
• Performance assessment of steel isolated structures considering heating
• Lead core based on seismic risk
• Steel isolated structures considering heating
• Near field earthquakes
• Conventional 4 story steel special moment resisting frame
• Analytical study of interior rigid bents arrangement
• Seismic response of tall buildings
• Interior rigid bents arrangement
• Tube type lateral load resistant framed systems
• Separated framed tube based skeletons
• Optimum seismic design
• Short to mid rise steel moment resisting frames
• Uniform deformation theory
• Distribute the construction material
• Nonlinear time history analysis
• Collapse safety margin in iranian seismic design code
• Case studies of RC frame structuress
• Iranian seismic design code
• RC frame structuress
• The effects of soil structure interaction
• Seismic response of steel moment resisting frames
• Steel moment resisting frames
• The SSI effect
• Trapezoidal shaped hills induced Bystrong ground motion records
• Rigorously examine the influences
• Two dimensional analyses
• The trapezoidal shaped hills