tailieunhanh - Lecture Introduction to operations management - Chapter 11: Forecasting
In this chapter we will discuss: A forecasting framework, qualitative forecasting methods, time-series forecasting, moving average, exponential smoothing, forecasting errors, advanced time-series forecasting, causal forecasting methods, selecting a forecasting method. | Operations Management Contemporary Concepts and Cases Chapter Eleven Forecasting Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Outline A Forecasting Framework Qualitative Forecasting Methods Time-Series Forecasting Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Errors Advanced Time-Series Forecasting Causal Forecasting Methods Selecting a Forecasting Method Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment A Forecasting Framework Focus of chapter is on forecasting demand for output from the operations function Demand may differ from sales Difference between forecasting and planning Forecasting: what we think will happen Planning: what we think should happen Forecasting application in various decision areas of operations (capacity planning, inventory management, others) Forecasting uses and methods (See Table ) Use of Forecasting: Operations Decisions 11- Use of Forecasting: Marketing, Finance & HR 11- ‘Qualitative’ Forecasting Methods Based on managerial judgment when there is a lack of data. No specific model. Major methods: Delphi Technique Market Surveys Life-cycles Analogy Informed Judgment (naïve models) Time-Series Forecasting Components of time-series data: Average level Trend—general direction (up or down) Seasonality—short term recurring cycles Cycle—long term business cycle Error (random or irregular component) “Decomposition” of time-series Data are decomposed into four components Moving averages Exponential smoothing Assumes no trend, seasonal or cyclical components Simple Moving Average: Weighted Moving Average: Moving Average Moving Average Period Actual Demand Forecast 1 10 2 18 3 29 4 - 19 (10+18+29)/3 = 19 Period 5 forecast will be (18+29+actual for period 4)/3 Compute three period moving average (number of periods is the decision of the forecaster) Figure : Time-Series Data Note: The more periods, the smoother the forecast. The new average is computed from the old | Operations Management Contemporary Concepts and Cases Chapter Eleven Forecasting Copyright © 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter Outline A Forecasting Framework Qualitative Forecasting Methods Time-Series Forecasting Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Errors Advanced Time-Series Forecasting Causal Forecasting Methods Selecting a Forecasting Method Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment A Forecasting Framework Focus of chapter is on forecasting demand for output from the operations function Demand may differ from sales Difference between forecasting and planning Forecasting: what we think will happen Planning: what we think should happen Forecasting application in various decision areas of operations (capacity planning, inventory management, others) Forecasting uses and methods (See Table ) Use of Forecasting: Operations Decisions 11- Use of Forecasting: Marketing, Finance & HR 11- .
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