tailieunhanh - Modelling of hand foot and mouth disease in Hai Phong Vietnam 2012 - 2016

The incidence rate was 106 cases per 100,000 population. The age-specific incidence rate for Hand, foot and mouth disease was highest in the age group of 1 - 3 years old (). The major aetiologic agents were EV - 71 (), CV - A6 (). R0 ranged from - . The greatest burden of Hand, foot and mouth disease is in the under five years old age range. Under present conditions, hand, foot and mouth disease will continue to persist in Haiphong. Interventions should target the high risk populations and areas. | JOURNAL OF MEDICAL RESEARCH MODELLING OF HAND FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE IN HAI PHONG VIETNAM 2012 - 2016 Mbinta Fenibe James1, Pham Quang Thai2, Dao Thi Minh An3, Marc Choisy4, Phan Hong Hai5, Tran Nhu Duong2 1 District Hospital Roua, Cameroon National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam 3 Hanoi Medical University, Vietnam 4 UMR Univ. Montpellier, CNRS 5290, IRD 224 5 Preventive Medicine Center, Hai Phong 2 Hand, foot and mouth disease is an infectious disease caused mainly by Entero virus 71 (EV - 71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV - A16). Recent outbreaks of Hand, foot and mouth disease in the West Pacific region have brought the world’s attention to hand, foot and mouth disease due to increasing morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiological distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in Haiphong 2012 - 2016 and develop and test the model of hand, foot and mouth disease in Haiphong. The study was done in Haiphong using surveillance data from 2012 - 2016. All statistical analysis were done using R packages (poseid, lubridate, dplyr, magrittr, ggplot2, deSolve, bbmle, fitsir ). SIR model was used to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0). The incidence rate was 106 cases per 100,000 population. The age-specific incidence rate for Hand, foot and mouth disease was highest in the age group of 1 - 3 years old (). The major aetiologic agents were EV - 71 (), CV - A6 (). R0 ranged from - . The greatest burden of Hand, foot and mouth disease is in the under five years old age range. Under present conditions, hand, foot and mouth disease will continue to persist in Haiphong. Interventions should target the high risk populations and areas. Keyword: HFMD, Epidemiology, Modelling, SIR Model, Basic Reproductive number, Hai Phong I. INTRODUCTION Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a Aseptic meningitis, encephalomyelitis, acute common infectious disease that occurs .