tailieunhanh - An econometric analysis of apricot supply and export demand in Turkey

This study estimates a supply model for apricots and an export demand model for dried apricots for Turkey to provide unit-free measure coefficients for better supply and marketing management. Using parameter estimates from the models and sample average data, elasticities of long-run supply, price-yield and export of dried apricots were computed as , and respectively. | Turk J Agric For 27 (2003) 313-321 © TÜB‹TAK An Econometric Analysis of Apricot Supply and Export Demand in Turkey ‹lkay DELLAL*, A. Ali KOÇ Tar›msal Ekonomi Araflt›rma Enstitüsü, 06100 Bakanl›klar, Ankara - TURKEY Received: Abstract: This study estimates a supply model for apricots and an export demand model for dried apricots for Turkey to provide unit-free measure coefficients for better supply and marketing management. Using parameter estimates from the models and sample average data, elasticities of long-run supply, price-yield and export of dried apricots were computed as , and respectively. From the price dependent export demand model, the price flexibility of dried apricots was calculated as –. In this study, the import demand elasticities of dried apricots for major destination countries were estimated and found to be inelastic. An evaluation of aggregated household consumption expenditure data indicates that the demand for fresh apricots will increase as per capita real income, population and urban population go up, but the growth in domestic demand for dried apricots and apricot jam will gradually increase as per capita income, population and urban population go up. According to the supply and export demand elasticities of dried apricots, without either supply control or demand expansion, apricot growers’ income will not be stabilized. Key Words: Apricot, Turkey, Supply, Export Demand Analysis Türkiye Kay›s› Arz ve ‹hracat Talebinin Ekonometrik Analizi Özet: Bu çal›flmada, Türkiye’de kay›s› pazarlamas›nda karar al›c›lar›n politika belirlemelerine yard›mc› olacak baz› temel ekonomik analiz araçlar› (esneklik) tahmin edilmifltir. Çal›flmada arz ve ihracat talep modellerinin tahmininden elde edilen parametreler ve dönem ortalamas›na ait de¤erlerden, kay›s›n›n uzun dönem arz, fiyat-verim ve ihracat talep esneklikleri s›ras›yla , , ve olarak hesaplanm›flt›r. Fiyat ba¤›ml› ihracat talep modelinden kuru kay›s› .

• Nông nghiệp
• Export demand analysis
• Export demand model
• Dried apricots for Turkey
• Price yield
• Long run supply