tailieunhanh - Evaluation of the impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on Vietnam iron and steel trade flows: Gravity model analysis

This paper analyzes the impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on Vietnam iron and steel trade flows. In this respect, a gravity model is applied to the panel data covering 27 top trading partners of Vietnam from 2001 to 2012. The paper findings show positive impact of ACFTA and VJEPA on increasing imports of ironandsteel into Vietnam while AKFTA, AFTA and VJEPA have positive effects on their export. AJCEP and AFTA are concluded to have little impact on either imports or exports. | VNU Journal of Science: Economics and Business, Vol. 30, No. 5E (2014) 17-26 Evaluation of the Impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on Vietnam Iron and Steel Trade Flows: Gravity Model Analysis1 Nguyễn Anh Thu*, Đỗ Thị Mai Hiênác VNU University of Economics and Business, 144 Xuân Thủy Str., Cầu Giấy Dist., Hanoi, Vietnam Received 15 December 2014 Revised 20 December 2014; Accepted 25 December 2014 Abstract: This paper analyzes the impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on Vietnam iron and steel trade flows. In this respect, a gravity model is applied to the panel data covering 27 top trading partners of Vietnam from 2001 to 2012. The paper findings show positive impact of ACFTA and VJEPA on increasing imports of iron and steel into Vietnam while AKFTA, AFTA and VJEPA have positive effects on their export. AJCEP and AFTA are concluded to have little impact on either imports or exports. Keywords: Vietnam, ASEAN+3, steel, gravity model. 1. Introduction*** high in the ASEAN region, ranking third among ASEAN countries, after Thailand and Indonesia. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s manufacturing industry is still immature and the country is becoming more urbanized. Since the trade volumes in steel between Vietnam and ASEAN+3 countries is relatively high (Appendix 1, 2) and the tariff reduction is clear (Appendix 3), ASEAN+3 FTAs is expected to have impacts on this trade flow. For the past decade, Vietnam has made a great effort to negotiate and conclude a number of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). The increasing free regional trade agreements over the years have had impacts on the whole economy as well as different industries. The iron and steel industry is known as a sensitive industry in Vietnam and is under significant effects of free trade agreements. The steel industry is one of the core industries of Vietnam which support development of the country, especially infrastructure development. Vietnam’s current consumption of steel is quite In this paper, we try to assess the impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on the