tailieunhanh - Economic growth and macroeconomic stability an estimate, prospect and some policy suggestions

In this paper, we try to analyze and estimate implementation of main goals to provide a panorama of the Vietnamese economy in 2010. We find that it recovered and regained momentum in 2010 but it still faces characteristic macroeconomic instabilities. | Prospects of economic growth & development in 2011 The main objective for the Vietnamese economy in the coming years is to maintain macroeconomic stability and existing growth rate. In this paper, we try to analyze and estimate implementation of main goals to provide a panorama of the Vietnamese economy in 2010. We find that it recovered and regained momentum in 2010 but it still faces characteristic macroeconomic instabilities. By providing some predictions of its prospect from 2011 onwards and clarifying characteristics of its macroeconomic instabilities, we offer some policy suggestions that aim at improving the situation and accelerating a sustainable economic growth. Keywords: inflation, trade gap, public debt, growth model I. PANORAMA OF VIETNAMESE ECONOMY Figure 1: Economic cycles 2006 – 2010 1. Economic growth while the global economy recovered slowly after its financial crisis, the vietnamese economy soon escaped from recession. An analysis of economic cycles shows that it came into a period of recovery in 2010. figure 1 provides indicators of economic cycles in 2006 – 2010. it recovery from a contracting period is marked with increasingly high growth rates in three successive quarters after passing its bottom point. it is an indicator of an expanding period in an economic cycle (Zhang and Zhuang; 2002). By this indicator, we see that the vietnamese economy passed its contracting period with quarter i/2009 as its bottom point, started re-developing in the next three quarters of 2009 and regained a high growth rate in 2010. 18 Economic Development Review - January 2011 Source: GSO (2010) and authors’ calculations the vietnamese economy in 2010 not only continued its 2009 recovery but also gained a pretty high growth rate in the context of global recession. Growth rate of the year in agricultural sector is estimated at 3% while this figure is for * University of Economics - HCMC Prospects of economic growth & development manufacturing .