tailieunhanh - Chapter 5 Risk Management

Tham khảo tài liệu 'chapter 5 risk management', công nghệ thông tin, cơ sở dữ liệu phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | Chapter 5 Risk Management CONTENTS PROCESS RISK MANAGEMENT February 2003 5-1 Chapter 5 Risk Management Condensed GSAM Handbook This page intentionally left blank. 5-2 February 2003 Chapter 5 Risk Management Introduction Risk is a product of the uncertainty of future events and is a part of all activity. It is a fact of life. We tend to stay away from those things that involve high risk to things we hold dear. When we cannot avoid risk we look for ways to reduce the risk or the impact of the risk upon our lives. But even with careful planning and preparation risks cannot be completely eliminated because they cannot all be identified beforehand. Even so risk is essential to progress. The opportunity to succeed also carries the opportunity to fail. It is necessary to learn to balance the possible negative consequences of risk with the potential benefits of its associated opportunity. 1 Risk may be defined as the possibility to suffer damage or loss. The possibility is characterized by three factors 1 1. The probability or likelihood that loss or damage will occur. 2. The expected time of occurrence. 3. The magnitude of the negative impact that can result from its occurrence. The seriousness of a risk can be determined by multiplying the probability of the event actually occurring by the potential negative impact to the cost schedule or performance of the project Risk Severity Probability of Occurrence Potential Negative Impact Thus risks where probability is high and potential impact is very low or vice versa are not considered as serious as risks where both probability and potential impact are medium to high. Project managers recognize and accept the fact that risk is inherent in any project. They also recognize that there are two ways of dealing with risk. One risk .